Indian stock market: Oil, tariff tensions and geopolitical conflict; what will guide stock market in upcoming week

Indian stock investors will remain focused this week on rising tensions between Iran and Israel, movements in Brent crude oil, inflation data, and the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision for fresh cues. Experts also pointed out that any tariff-related developments could steer equity market trends. Last week, markets tumbled down amid heightened volatility and ended lower, as escalating geopolitical tensions triggered a wave of risk aversion. Investor sentiment took a hit amid surging oil prices, reigniting concerns over potential supply disruptions.“Indian stock markets are likely to follow the global trend, following rising tension in the Middle East amid the Israel-Iran conflict, which could fuel further pessimism and prompt investors to flee riskier assets,” said Ketan Vikam, head of sales at Almondz Institutional Equities. “Also, traders will exercise caution ahead of the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday, coupled with other central banks of Japan and the UK announcing their interest rates separately,” PTI quoted.Equity indices ended lower last week, with Sensex dropping 1,070 points or 1.30 per cent and the Nifty shedding 284 points or 1.13 per cent. On Friday alone, both benchmarks fell nearly 1 per cent amid surging oil prices and weak global cues, reflecting a sharp turn in investor sentiment.“Looking ahead, investors are expected to remain cautious amid premium valuations and geopolitical risks. All eyes are now on the upcoming US Fed meeting,” said Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Financial Services. “The Fed’s commentary and economic projections will be closely scrutinised for future policy cues.”The focus will also remain on domestic factors such as wholesale inflation data, monsoon progress, crude oil price trends, and foreign investor activity.“Markets are likely to remain volatile amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and crucial central bank meetings,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP of research at Religare Broking Ltd. “The US Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision will be closely tracked, as market participants look for clarity on the timing and magnitude of potential rate cuts, especially in light of mixed economic signals.”Siddhartha Khemka, head of research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, added, “Overall, we expect the market to remain subdued on the back of weak global cues, while industry-specific news flows would continue to drive sectoral movements.”