Germany grapples with Trump’s foreign policy shifts

German politicians are finding it hard to keep up with developments these days: Just over a week ago at the Munich Security Conference, a high-level annual gathering of political leaders and defense specialists, US Vice President JD Vance accused them of censorship and told them to cooperate with the far-right populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party instead of treating it as a pariah.
A few days later, the German government, along with every other European leader, was left out of talks in Saudi Arabia between the American and Russian negotiators.
US representatives have made it clear that Ukraine can neither hope for the restoration of its 2014 borders nor for Nato membership — things that the German government regards as unalterable prerequisites for peace, as it vows to continue standing at Ukraine’s side in its fight against the Russian invasion.
On top of that, Trump demanded payment for US support for Ukraine in the form of its natural resources — grossly exaggerating the value of the aid it was sending. Finally, US President Donald Trump adopted Russia’s view and agenda completely, calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a “dictator,” demanding Ukraine hold elections immediately, during wartime, and even falsely accusing Zelenskyy of starting the war in the first place.

Berlin in shock

All this has left German politicians stunned. Chancellor Olaf Scholz told the media outlet Der Spiegel on Wednesday: “It is simply wrong and dangerous to question President Zelenskyy’s democratic legitimacy,” he said. Zelenskyy came to power through elections in 2019, a fresh election was scheduled for 2024, but according to Ukraine’s constitution elections can only be held in times of peace.
Germany’s Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck accused Trump of distorting the facts: “That he is suddenly saying that Ukraine attacked Russia is almost unacceptable,” Habeck told public broadcaster ARD.
“This is basically a classic perpetrator-victim reversal, this is the Russian narrative,” said Friedrich Merz, leader of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), who, going by opinion polls, is currently most likely to be the next German chancellor. “And to be honest, I am somewhat shocked that Donald Trump has now obviously adopted this narrative,” Merz continued. He went on to say that Germany and Europe are now facing a “real paradigm shift in foreign and security policy.”
Known as a committed trans-Atlanticist, Merz had tended to hold back on criticizing Trump and called for a pragmatic approach to the new administration in Washington. But even Merz seems to be surprised by the extent of the provocations.

Transatlantic common ground vanishes

Within a matter of days, Trump and his government team have been destroying all the common ground between the US and Germany.
Both Scholz and President Joe Biden had repeatedly expressed their willingness to help Ukraine in its defensive struggle “for as long as necessary.” No doubt was ever expressed about either Russia’s sole responsibility for the war or Zelenskyy’s democratic legitimacy.
Both leaders expressed a firm belief that Ukraine was not just defending itself against the Russian aggressor, but that it was also defending Europe as a whole. There was never any talk of demanding rare earths in return for missiles. With Trump, there is now nothing left of such basic transatlantic agreements.

Relying on themselves

The sheer speed of Trump’s actions appears to have utterly wrongfooted the European governments. How can they, how can Germany react?
Both Merz and Scholz, who will remain in office until a new chancellor is sworn in — which may take as long as two months, if he does not win Sunday’s election — have said they want to maintain Germany’s support for Ukraine. “We have to ensure our own security,” he told public broadcaster ZDF, stressing that the European states must stand together and be strong enough to deter potential attackers.
“It is now important that the Europeans agree on a common strategy very, very quickly,” Merz told public broadcaster RBB, adding that Europe must develop its own leverage, rather than begging for a place at the negotiating table.
Henning Hoff agrees. “The next German government should work closely with its European allies to improve its ability to act as quickly as possible and try to close the capability gaps that a US withdrawal from Europe will leave behind,” he said. “This will all be difficult enough, but at least we should stop standing in the way of ourselves and our European allies.”
The continued provocations from Washington appear to have led to a rapprochement between Merz’s center-right CDU and Scholz’s center-left Social Democrats (SPD) ahead of Sunday’s general election.
Their rhetoric has been toned down, as the leaders of both parties know they may have to forge a coalition. They agree that Germany needs to come up with a solid strategy to deal with the US under Trump, who has managed to destroy the old transatlantic certainties within just a few days.