TTP, BLA, ISK, Taliban: Will Pakistan succumb to ‘Quad of terror’?
Pakistan is facing one of its most dangerous security crises in decades. The country is not just fighting a single insurgent group but is simultaneously battling four distinct yet increasingly interconnected militant organizations: Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), Islamic State Khorasan (ISK), and the Afghan Taliban’s indirect influence.
Each of these groups operates with different objectives, but together, they are tearing at the fabric of Pakistan’s security, economy, and sovereignty.
With a 45% increase in terrorism-related deaths in 2024, according to the Global Terrorism Index (GTI), and an alarming rise in attacks across multiple fronts, the situation has escalated into what could be called a “Quad of terror”.
The latest train hijacking in Balochistan—a chilling display of insurgent power—has once again brought Pakistan’s security vulnerabilities to the forefront.
The big question remains: Can Pakistan successfully counter this growing terrorist network, or is it on the brink of deeper instability?
Jaffar Express: BLA hijacks a train
- On March 11, militants from the
Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) targeted the Jaffar Express, a passenger train traveling through the remote, mountainous region of Balochistan. - The insurgents blew up railway tracks and opened fire, forcing the train to stop inside a tunnel.
- The BLA claimed to have taken over 200 hostages, including Pakistani army officers and intelligence personnel, and executed over 20 security personnel in retaliation for military action.
- Security forces have rescued over 190 passengers, but dozens remain trapped, and the military operation is ongoing.
- The BLA issued a 48-hour ultimatum, demanding the release of Baloch political prisoners and activists in exchange for the hostages.
- Attackers specifically targeted non-locals, checking identity cards and abducting passengers identified as Punjabis.
- The scale and sophistication of this attack—especially targeting a civilian train carrying over 400 passengers—signal a new level of audacity in Pakistan’s long-running insurgencies.
There is not a single inch of Balochistan left where the government can claim authority. They have lost this war—completely and irreversibly. It is over. We warned them, just as those before us warned them. But instead of listening, they mocked us. They dismissed our words as empty threats, while they fueled a system of oppression, looting, and bloodshed. Every single government—without exception—has played its role in the systematic genocide of the Baloch people. This is the one issue where every institution, every administration, every so-called leader has always stood united—against us. And rather than acknowledge their crimes, they have done what they do best: shift the blame onto others.But today, I want to make something very clear. To the federal government, to the political parties, to the judiciary, to the establishment—you have brought Balochistan to the brink of destruction with your own hands. But this time, it is beyond our control. And it is beyond yours as well.
Akhtar Mengal, President of Balochistan National Party.
The big picture: A nation under siege
Pakistan’s security forces are facing unprecedented threats on multiple fronts. The Global Terrorism Index (GTI) 2025, released earlier this month, ranked Pakistan as the second most terrorism-affected country globally, a grim ascent from its fourth-place position the previous year. The report documented a 45% increase in terrorism-related deaths, rising from 748 in 2023 to 1,081 in 2024. This spike is attributed largely to the resurgence of the TTP, alongside intensified attacks by the BLA and the growing influence of ISK, with the Afghan Taliban’s role adding a complex layer to the crisis.
The four insurgent groups—each with its own goals—are increasingly operating in a way that overlaps and amplifies each other’s impact:
Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)
The TTP, emboldened by the Taliban’s 2021 victory in Afghanistan, has intensified its attacks. The porous Pakistan-Afghanistan border has become a logistical hub for its fighters, allowing them to regroup and strike Pakistani forces with increasing frequency.
Operating primarily in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and along the Afghan border, the TTP has emerged as Pakistan’s most lethal insurgent group. The GTI notes a 90% surge in TTP-linked deaths in 2024, with the group responsible for 558 fatalities across 482 attacks—the highest number since 2011. The TTP has benefited from safe havens in Afghanistan, which have allowed it to regroup and plan large-scale attacks, including suicide bombings targeting security forces.
Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA)
The BLA has escalated its insurgency, particularly targeting state infrastructure, military personnel, and Chinese investment projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The train hijacking is only the latest in a string of deadly attacks, following a January suicide bombing in Quetta that killed 25 people, including Chinese engineers.
Islamic State Khorasan (ISK)
ISK has been expanding its footprint in Pakistan, staging high-profile suicide bombings, including a February 28 attack on a seminary in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa that killed six people, including a prominent cleric. The group, though ideologically at odds with the Taliban, thrives in the chaos created by Pakistan’s internal conflict.
Afghan Taliban: A silent enabler?
Though not directly attacking Pakistan, the Afghan Taliban has been accused of providing tacit support to the TTP. A UN report from February 2025 confirmed that the Taliban continues to offer logistical and financial backing to the TTP, hosting training centers in Afghan provinces like Kunar and Nangarhar. This relationship has strained Pakistan’s ties with Kabul, with Islamabad demanding action against TTP sanctuaries—requests that have largely been ignored.
Pakistan’s own leverage in Afghanistan has diminished since the Taliban takeover, as the group no longer requires Pakistani sanctuary. Islamabad may hope that Beijing will press the Taliban to take steps that reduce the TTP threat in Pakistan. This would additionally serve Chinese interests by reducing risks in Afghanistan: If cross-border terrorism decreases, Pakistan has less incentive to stage strikes in Afghanistan, where China is exploring investment possibilities.
An article in Foreign Policy tilted ‘Pakistan Unveils New Counterterrorism Plan’
These groups, operating separately but often exploiting the same weaknesses in Pakistan’s security apparatus, present a nightmare scenario for law enforcement and military planners.
Why it matters: A multi-front war
Pakistan has faced terrorism before, but this is different. The simultaneous resurgence of multiple insurgent factions—each with its own motivations but overlapping operational capacities—makes this an unprecedented crisis.
TTP’s cross-border safe havens: The Afghan Taliban’s reluctance to act against the TTP has emboldened the group, giving it a “strategic depth” that Pakistani forces struggle to neutralize.
Baloch separatism gains momentum: The BLA’s focus on targeting military personnel and Chinese investments threatens both national security and crucial economic projects like CPEC.
ISK’s growing urban footprint: While previously contained in Afghanistan, ISK is now targeting Pakistani cities, aiming to destabilize urban centers through sectarian violence and suicide bombings.
Geopolitical implications: A weakened Pakistan is vulnerable to external manipulation, with both regional and global consequences—including concerns over nuclear security.
China in the crosshairs
China, Pakistan’s closest strategic ally, is increasingly becoming a target of the “Quad of terror”. The BLA, in particular, has escalated attacks on Chinese nationals and projects under CPEC, seeing them as symbols of Pakistan’s exploitation of Balochistan’s resources. In February 2025, a suicide bombing near the Gwadar Port killed four Chinese engineers, the latest in a series of attacks against Beijing’s interests in Pakistan. The TTP and ISK have also expressed hostility toward China, with ISK launching a 2024 attack on the Chinese consulate in Karachi. These groups, viewing China as an ally of the Pakistani state, have intensified their efforts to disrupt Chinese investments, raising concerns in Beijing about Pakistan’s ability to secure its economic corridor.
Between the lines: A crisis of strategy
- Pakistan’s military-first approach to counterterrorism, while effective in eliminating individual militants, has failed to dismantle entire networks. The TTP, BLA, and ISK remain resilient, continuously adapting to counterinsurgency tactics.
- Drone strikes and air raids have taken out key militant leaders, but the groups regenerate quickly due to strong recruitment pipelines.
- Diplomatic pressure on Afghanistan has yielded little success, as the Taliban remains indifferent to Pakistan’s concerns.
- Domestic crackdowns on terrorism have been sporadic, with no long-term deradicalization efforts to prevent future recruitment.
- The new counterterrorism strategy announced by the government includes kinetic operations, legal reforms, and social interventions, but analysts warn it is too vague and lacks the resources for full implementation.
What’s next: The battle for stability
Pakistan’s survival against this ‘Quad of terror’ depends on a multi-pronged approach:
- Diplomatic pressure on Afghanistan: Islamabad must seek international mediation, possibly involving China and Gulf nations, to push the Taliban into dismantling TTP sanctuaries.
- Enhanced counterterrorism operations: More intelligence-based strikes and border security reinforcements to prevent cross-border militant movement.
- Strengthened intelligence sharing: Pakistan must work closely with regional allies like China, Iran, and even India to disrupt terrorist funding and logistical networks.
- Socioeconomic reforms: Addressing the root causes of insurgency—such as unemployment and political disenfranchisement in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa—can undercut militant recruitment.
Bottom Line
Pakistan stands at a critical crossroads. The escalating multi-front insurgency is stretching its security forces to the limit, while diplomatic efforts with Afghanistan remain stalled. With the TTP, BLA, ISK, and the Taliban all exerting influence, Pakistan must urgently adapt its counterterrorism strategy to meet this new reality.
Failure to do so could push the country into deeper instability, economic collapse, and even territorial fragmentation—an outcome with dire consequences for South Asian and global security.
(With inputs from agencies)
